Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 031630Z – 041200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Scattered thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and tonight
from portions of southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley.

Morning water vapor loop shows a broad upper trough digging over the
western US, while a potent shortwave trough lifts northeastward
across Mexico toward TX. Increasing large-scale lift ahead of the
lead shortwave trough will overspread parts of TX/OK/AR through
tonight, with scattered showers and a few clusters of thunderstorms
developing across the region. 12z CAM guidance is in strong
agreement that, while a plume of steepening midlevel lapse rates
will affect parts of TX this afternoon/evening, convective updrafts
will struggle to attain much intensity or organization. A strong
storm cannot be completely ruled out. But based on new guidance,
the odds of occurrence and areal coverage of threat appears
sufficiently low to warrant less-than-5% severe probabilities.

..Hart/Wendt.. 02/03/2020

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