Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 031630Z – 041200Z


Scattered thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and tonight
from portions of southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley.

Morning water vapor loop shows a broad upper trough digging over the
western US, while a potent shortwave trough lifts northeastward
across Mexico toward TX. Increasing large-scale lift ahead of the
lead shortwave trough will overspread parts of TX/OK/AR through
tonight, with scattered showers and a few clusters of thunderstorms
developing across the region. 12z CAM guidance is in strong
agreement that, while a plume of steepening midlevel lapse rates
will affect parts of TX this afternoon/evening, convective updrafts
will struggle to attain much intensity or organization. A strong
storm cannot be completely ruled out. But based on new guidance,
the odds of occurrence and areal coverage of threat appears
sufficiently low to warrant less-than-5% severe probabilities.

..Hart/Wendt.. 02/03/2020


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