Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 031200Z – 041200Z


Thunderstorms are possible from Southwest Texas into the Arklatex
this evening through early Tuesday morning. Severe weather is not

…Texas and southeast Oklahoma through Arkansas…

A cutoff upper low currently near Baja CA will undergo significant
deamplification as it accelerates northeast through TX, while being
absorbed within the base of an amplifying upper trough now
approaching the Great Basin. Partially modified Gulf air with low
60s F dewpoints will return through central and eastern TX, while
simultaneously mid-level lapse rates will steepen, contributing to
400-800 J/kg MUCAPE. However, the base of the unstable layer will
likely remain above the surface that will begin to stabilize with
onset of nocturnal cooling. Isolated thunderstorms may occur
initially over southwest TX by early evening. Thunderstorm coverage
will likely increase from central through northeast TX overnight as
forcing for ascent with the ejecting shortwave trough intercepts
greater low-level moisture and instability. While vertical shear
will be strong, storms will likely remain elevated above the stable
surface layer with a marginal thermodynamic environment likely to
preclude a risk for severe storms.

..Dial.. 02/03/2020


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