Valid 012000Z – 021200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across south Florida and
the Keys, with strong to damaging wind gusts as the main threat.
Recent surface analysis placed the cold front from just south of XMR
southwestward across the central FL Peninsula to near VNC, then
continuing southwestward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Relatively warm and moist conditions persist ahead of this front
across South Florida, with temperatures and dewpoints generally in
the upper 60s/low 70s. However, skies have remained mostly cloudy
with occasional showers, tempering daytime heating and keeping
instability low. Recent 18Z MFL sounding reveals this limited
instability well. This sounding also shows warm and relatively dry
conditions between 900-700 mb, which is also contributing to reduced
updraft strength and limited lightning production.
Some improvement of the thermodynamics is anticipated as lift
attendant to a lead shortwave trough helps cool and moisten the dry
layer between 900-700 mb. This should allow for more persistent
updrafts and greater lightning production. An isolated storm or two
may become strong enough to produce a strong downdraft.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0950 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2020/
Similar to yesterday, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico will track across south FL later today.
Abundant clouds and areas of precipitation are occurring across the
region, limiting destabilization and confidence in robust
updrafts/downdrafts. Vertical shear profiles are also only
marginally supportive of organization. Have opted to maintain the
ongoing risk areas with no changes, but confidence in severe storms
has decreased somewhat over south FL today (especially north of the
Keys). The primary risk period will be from 17-23z. Please refer
to MCD #72 for further short-term details.