Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 011200Z – 021200Z


A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across south Florida and
the Keys. Isolated strong to damaging wind gusts should be the main

…South Florida…

Lead weak disturbance that is ejecting off the FL Atlantic Coast at
01/05z will shunt a corridor of deep convection well offshore by
sunrise Saturday morning. Upstream, stronger short-wave trough that
is currently over TX will shift into the central Gulf States,
trailing into the western Gulf Basin by 18z. Right entrance region
of a strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the
southern FL Peninsula during the afternoon. This feature is expected
to encourage deep convection over the eastern Gulf Basin that will
spread/develop east ahead of a surface front as it sags southeast.
As this feature approaches, southwesterly flow will deepen but
remain strongly sheared, certainly supportive of organized
convection. A secondary PW surge should spread northeast in response
to this approaching speed max and one or more organized bands of
thunderstorms are expected to evolve then track across south FL. At
this time it appears the main threat will be damaging winds as the
primary storm mode should be linear in nature. Latest CAMs support
this scenario with the greatest risk being between 17-21z.

..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/01/2020


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