Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 302000Z – 311200Z


Isolated lightning flashes are possible over parts of south Texas
and southeast Louisiana tonight.

…20Z Update…
No changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across
portions of south TX and southeastern LA.

..Gleason.. 01/30/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2020/

…South TX and southeast LA…
A shortwave trough centered on southwest Chihuahua will shift east
towards the TX Gulf Coast through early Friday. Weak cyclogenesis or
at least a surface trough should attempt to form in the northwest to
north-central Gulf tonight. Northeasterly surface winds will persist
inland. Above the low-level cool air, modest warm/moist advection
between 800-700 mb in conjunction with mid-level height falls from
the approaching trough could support development of scant elevated
buoyancy across southern parts of TX/LA. Guidance is consistent in
depicting a broad swath of weak elevated convection tonight into
Friday morning, which may contain isolated lightning flashes.


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