Valid 301630Z – 311200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Isolated lightning flashes are possible over parts of south Texas
and southeast Louisiana tonight.
…South TX and southeast LA…
A shortwave trough centered on southwest Chihuahua will shift east
towards the TX Gulf Coast through early Friday. Weak cyclogenesis or
at least a surface trough should attempt to form in the northwest to
north-central Gulf tonight. Northeasterly surface winds will persist
inland. Above the low-level cool air, modest warm/moist advection
between 800-700 mb in conjunction with mid-level height falls from
the approaching trough could support development of scant elevated
buoyancy across southern parts of TX/LA. Guidance is consistent in
depicting a broad swath of weak elevated convection tonight into
Friday morning, which may contain isolated lightning flashes.