Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 301300Z – 311200Z

…NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
The chance for thunderstorm development is very low today and
tonight.

…Synopsis…
A midlevel trough over northwestern Mexico will move eastward to
South TX by tonight, in response to upstream height falls preceding
another trough that is now cresting the midlevel ridge over the
northern Rockies. Any weak cyclogenesis with the trough approaching
South TX will be confined to the shelf waters of the northwest/north
central Gulf of Mexico, given a relatively cool/stable air mass that
will persist inland. Above the low-level cool air, steep lapse
rates in the 700-500 mb layer will overspread south central TX as
the midlevel trough approaches. Isolated thunderstorms have been
noted this morning near the Rio Grande and over south central TX,
and very weak buoyancy rooted above 700 mb may support additional
isolated lightning flashes today with weak elevated convection.
Elevated convection will also be possible just off the LA coast
overnight in a warm advection regime. Still, coverage of
thunderstorms over land in either area should remain sparse at best,
thus no outlook areas have been added in this update.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/30/2020

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