Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 300100Z – 301200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA…

…SUMMARY…
A severe thunderstorm or two are possible across the Florida Keys
and the extreme southern Florida Peninsula this evening.

…Florida Keys and Far Southern Florida Peninsula…
A shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, will move across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening. At the surface, a low and
moist corridor is analyzed across the eastern Gulf where the RAP is
showing moderate instability. The unstable airmass extends
southeastward from the surface low across the Florida Keys where
surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As the
shortwave trough moves eastward, instability will gradually increase
across the Florida Keys. Thunderstorms are already ongoing from
south-central Florida extending westward to just southeast of the
surface low. This convection should continue to move southeastward,
reaching far southern Florida later this evening. A few discreet
cells may also develop ahead of this area of convection in the
Florida Keys. Low-end moderate instability combined with strong
deep-layer shear could be enough for a marginal severe threat this
evening. Hail and isolated strong wind gusts will be the primary
threats although a brief tornado can not be ruled out.

..Broyles.. 01/30/2020

$$

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.