Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 291630Z – 301200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FL KEYS AND
EXTREME SOUTH FL…

…SUMMARY…
A severe thunderstorm or two are possible across the Florida Keys
and the extreme southern Florida Peninsula between about 8 PM to 1
AM EST.

…FL Keys vicinity…
A shortwave trough over the central Gulf Coast will translate east
off the South Atlantic Coast by early Thursday. Attendant surface
cyclone near the mouth of the MS River should weaken as it
approaches the Fort Myers area while downstream cyclogenesis occurs
in the Atlantic just east of the Space/First Coasts. A residual
front across the FL Straits into the southern Gulf should advance
northeast as low-level southwesterlies strengthen this evening.
Guidance differs on the degree of moistening, with the 14Z RAP
notably aggressive, especially across the southern peninsula. The
opportunity for more substantial moistening and resultant buoyancy
will probably remain confined to the Keys into perhaps the far
southern peninsula.

The RAP and 00Z ECMWF maintain a broader swath of 850-mb winds in
excess of 30 kt, with forecast soundings from the RAP indicative of
a supercell wind profile. There may still be adequate low-level
convergence within the warm conveyor ahead of the front to support a
discrete supercell or two, which multiple CAMs simulate, most likely
across the Lower Keys. All modes of severe are possible, before
convection subsides overnight as convergence/ascent further weaken.

..Grams/Wendt.. 01/29/2020

$$

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