Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 291300Z – 301200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible through
tonight.

…Synopsis…
A midlevel shortwave trough approaching the lower MS Valley this
morning will gradually lose amplitude while continuing eastward over
the northeast Gulf coast today and southeast Atlantic coast by
tonight. An associated surface cyclone now along the southeast LA
coast will move eastward and weaken, though low-level warm advection
will maintain a threat for a few elevated thunderstorms today near
the northern Gulf coast. Farther east, a cool/dry air mass resides
across FL in the wake of a prior frontal intrusion. The more
substantial moistening (and resultant buoyancy) will likely be
confined to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and the Gulf Stream just off
the FL Atlantic coast late in the period. Thus, while a few
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across south FL in proximity
to the greater low-level moistening, marginal buoyancy and the
weakening shortwave trough both do not support severe storms.

Otherwise, a midlevel trough over the Great Basin will dig
southeastward toward northwest Mexico by tonight. Moisture with
this trough will be limited, but weak buoyancy will be possible over
the Mogollon Rim this afternoon, where surface heating could support
isolated, low-topped thunderstorms with surface heating. Isolated
lightning flashes cannot be ruled out this evening from southeast AZ
into southwest NM, and late tonight farther southeast along the
middle Rio Grande Valley. Any convection tonight over the Rio
Grande Valley would likely be rooted above 700 mb with marginal
buoyancy, which suggests that thunderstorm probabilities are less
than 10%.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/29/2020

$$

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