Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 290100Z – 291200Z


Scattered thunderstorm activity may continue across parts of eastern
Texas into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and north
central Gulf coast tonight, but the risk for severe weather appears

…01Z Outlook Update…

…East Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley…
Primary thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening has
been focused within a narrow corridor of weak boundary-layer
destabilization, along a pre-frontal surface trough curving roughly
from west of the Houston through areas near/east of the Dallas-Fort
Worth Metroplex. This could continue another hour or two, but seems
likely to wane as the cold front overtakes the remnant corridor of
stronger boundary-layer heating.

Otherwise, it appears that the primary surface low will redevelop
southeastward from northeastern Texas into Louisiana Gulf coastal
areas overnight. Moisture return on strengthening southerly flow
ahead of this feature, above a residual cool/stable boundary layer,
may contribute to sufficient destabilization or new thunderstorm
development across southeastern Louisiana into southwestern
Mississippi after 08-09Z. However, based on model forecast
sounding, the risk for severe weather appears negligible.

…Northern intermountain region/Great Basin…
Scattered thunderstorm development, aided by weak destabilization
beneath the mid-level cold core of the inland migrating short wave
trough, has been largely confined to the higher terrain to the
southwest and south of the Snake River plain. Recent trends in
lightning and objective instability analyses suggest this is in the
process of waning. Although the development of convection capable
of producing lightning may still not be completely out of the
question, southward across parts of northeastern Nevada and
northwestern Utah into this evening, this potential appears
increasingly negligible with probabilities for thunderstorms falling
below 10 percent.

..Kerr.. 01/29/2020


Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.