Valid 282000Z – 291200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
South-Central States and the Northwest through tonight.
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020/
Isolated elevated thunderstorms will remain possible within the warm
conveyor region along the immediate Gulf Coast. A narrow corridor of
surface-based instability will develop from central to east TX to
the southeast of a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the Red
River. With only low to mid 50s surface dew points, MLCAPE should
remain meager, at or below 500 J/kg. Given the shallowness of the
buoyancy and stronger speed shear confined to the mid to upper
levels, potential for severe appears limited. Still, small hail will
be possible during the late afternoon/early evening in east TX. Some
of this activity may linger as weak elevated convection towards the
Lower MS Valley through tonight.
A shortwave trough will progress from the Pacific Northwest coast
into the Great Basin. Isolated lightning flashes will remain
possible ahead of the trough, centered on the Treasure Valley of
OR/ID during the late afternoon/early evening.