Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 281300Z – 291200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Scattered thunderstorms may impact portions of the southern Plains
into the northwest Gulf coast vicinity today into tonight, and
isolated lightning flashes will also be possible across the Pacific
Northwest.

…Synopsis…
A progressive flow regime persists today, as one midlevel shortwave
trough digs southeastward from the Pacific Northwest this morning to
the Great Basin overnight, and a downstream trough translates
eastward from the southern Plains to the lower MS Valley. A few
lightning flashes will be possible this morning along the WA/OR
coasts as the primary baroclinic zone and midlevel trough move
inland. Some weak convection will also be possible east of the
Cascades later today, where marginal buoyancy could support isolated
lightning flashes from eastern OR into western ID.

The threat for scattered thunderstorms will persist today in the
warm conveyor belt across TX/OK. Buoyancy will remain largely
elevated inland where the stronger forcing for ascent will be, with
the richer low-level moisture and near-surface buoyancy confined to
along or just off the TX/LA coasts. A very narrow corridor of weak
surface-based CAPE will be possible this afternoon near the surface
cyclone across north TX, beneath the midlevel trough. However,
severe storms are not expected due to weak vertical shear in this
same corridor, and only marginal buoyancy.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/28/2020

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