Valid 271630Z – 281200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
A shortwave trough over the Four Corners area will progress into
west TX by early Tuesday, with an attendant lee cyclone tracking
from east-central NM into northwest TX. Isolated to scattered
elevated thunderstorms are expected, centered on central TX after
06Z, as ascent and moistening yields weak buoyancy from parcels
between 850-700 mb. Small hail will be possible in the strongest
updrafts, but a limited buoyancy/shear combination should preclude a
The next in a series of shortwave troughs will reach the
WA/OR coasts overnight. Steepening low/mid-level lapse rates and
scant buoyancy rooted at the surface will reach the coast after 06Z,
as the shortwave trough and baroclinic zone progress inland.
Isolated lightning flashes are possible near the coast, but
low-level winds will be veered. Enlarged low-level hodographs should
persist longer into the night along the I-5 corridor from Salem to
Seattle, but buoyancy should remain negligible until winds veer.