Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 271300Z – 281200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

A progressive flow regime will continue across the CONUS through
tonight, with a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving over the
Pacific Northwest, the southern Plains, and the Southeast. A subtle
trough over the Gulf of Mexico will cross FL today, though any
threat for thunderstorms will be confined to the southwest coast
where some weak destabilization is possible. A more substantial
shortwave trough now over UT/AZ will move generally eastward to
NM/west TX by tonight, with associated lee cyclogenesis expected in
the vicinity of the TX South Plains. Midlevel cooling and
steepening lapse rates, in conjunction with daytime surface heating,
could support some low-topped convection this afternoon across NM.
Ascent and lingering steep midlevel lapse rates will combine with
modest low-midlevel moistening to support scattered elevated
thunderstorms tonight from central TX into southern OK.

Otherwise, another in a series of shortwave troughs will reach the
WA/OR coasts overnight. Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and
weak buoyancy rooted at the surface will reach the coast after 06z,
as the shortwave trough and baroclinic zone progress inland.
Isolated lightning flashes with be possible near the coast.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/27/2020


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