Valid 262000Z – 271200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
A few weak thunderstorms remain possible today mainly over southeast
LA into southern MS/AL, where weak instability exists north of a
surface low/trough. The primary area of lift will move over the Gulf
of Mexico this evening, ending chances over land.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0936 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020/
A relatively quiescent pattern for thunderstorms across the CONUS
through tonight. The most probable region for isolated lightning
flashes is along the central Gulf Coast where scant elevated
buoyancy, as sampled by the 12Z Shreveport sounding, may persist
amid continued low-level warm advection through tonight.
Otherwise, multiple shortwave troughs will move inland over
the Pacific Northwest and from CA into the Great Basin. Steepening
mid-level lapse rates accompanying the southern trough may support
very isolated lightning flashes across parts of NV into western UT
during the late afternoon and evening. However, with MUCAPE expected
to remain at or below 100 J/kg, the threat for thunderstorms appears
too small to justify a broader outlook area. A separate shortwave
trough will move inland over OR/WA this evening. Some lightning has
been noted with this wave about 300 miles west of the OR coast, but
forecast soundings suggest buoyancy may remain too weak/shallow for
any appreciable lightning threat over land.