Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 260100Z – 261200Z


The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
through tonight.

…01Z Outlook Update…
Low-level moisture return is underway across the lower Rio Grande
Valley into portions of the southern Plains. This will continue
into tonight, with higher moisture content (including precipitable
water in excess of 1 inch) tending to advect northeastward in a
plume from the lower/middle Texas coastal plain through southeastern
Texas and western/central Louisiana, as a mid-level short wave
trough turns eastward through the Red River Valley.

North of middle Texas coastal areas, weak destabilization will
generally be based above a stable layer near the surface, but
forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm
advection is expected to contribute to increasing convective
development late this evening into the overnight hours. This
probably will include scattered weak thunderstorm activity, with
stronger divergence aloft between coupled high level jet streaks
perhaps focusing highest thunderstorm probabilities across southeast
Texas into Louisiana.

Near/north of the Red River Valley, despite more limited low-level
moisture, colder air aloft, coupled with stronger forcing associated
with the mid-level wave, may contribute to another area of weak
thunderstorm development. Recent lightning flashes with convection
near/west of Fort Smith AR suggest that this may already be

..Kerr.. 01/26/2020


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