Valid 252000Z – 261200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through
Only minor modifications were made to the general thunder area over
the Northeast as drying continues behind the cold front, ending
potential over the Mid Atlantic. Warm advection ahead of a surface
low approaching Long Island may support weak, elevated instability
and a few lightning flashes over southern New England within the
broader area of precipitation. See previous discussion for further
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020/
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern High Plains will
dampen as it reaches the Ark-La-Tex by early morning Sunday.
Low-level warm advection ahead of this wave will aid in scattered
elevated convection developing overnight across southeast TX into
western LA. A separate corridor of elevated convection should also
form across southeast OK into the Ark-La-Tex amid steeper mid-level
lapse rates and forcing for ascent near the trough. Weak buoyancy
will limit updraft strength, but small hail is possible in a few
cells across southeast TX towards dawn.
…Coastal Southern New England…
Strongly forced ascent within the warm conveyor downstream of a
shortwave impulse rotating north across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
States may compensate for meager elevated buoyancy to yield sporadic
lightning flashes, mainly this evening.