Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 251630Z – 261200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through

…South-Central States…
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern High Plains will
dampen as it reaches the Ark-La-Tex by early morning Sunday.
Low-level warm advection ahead of this wave will aid in scattered
elevated convection developing overnight across southeast TX into
western LA. A separate corridor of elevated convection should also
form across southeast OK into the Ark-La-Tex amid steeper mid-level
lapse rates and forcing for ascent near the trough. Weak buoyancy
will limit updraft strength, but small hail is possible in a few
cells across southeast TX towards dawn.

…Coastal Southern New England…
Strongly forced ascent within the warm conveyor downstream of a
shortwave impulse rotating north across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
States may compensate for meager elevated buoyancy to yield sporadic
lightning flashes, mainly this evening.

..Grams/Jirak.. 01/25/2020


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