Valid 251630Z – 261200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern High Plains will
dampen as it reaches the Ark-La-Tex by early morning Sunday.
Low-level warm advection ahead of this wave will aid in scattered
elevated convection developing overnight across southeast TX into
western LA. A separate corridor of elevated convection should also
form across southeast OK into the Ark-La-Tex amid steeper mid-level
lapse rates and forcing for ascent near the trough. Weak buoyancy
will limit updraft strength, but small hail is possible in a few
cells across southeast TX towards dawn.
…Coastal Southern New England…
Strongly forced ascent within the warm conveyor downstream of a
shortwave impulse rotating north across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast
States may compensate for meager elevated buoyancy to yield sporadic
lightning flashes, mainly this evening.