Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 251300Z – 261200Z


The threat of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S. through tonight.

A deep closed low over the OH Valley/Great Lakes will continue
east-northeastward toward PA/NY/New England through tonight, as an
embedded jet streak progresses off the Mid Atlantic coast. The
primary surface cyclone will evolve from the Mid Atlantic coast this
morning to the southeast New England coast tonight, while a trailing
cold front moves across eastern NC and southeast FL. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this morning near the NC Outer banks
prior to frontal passage, and isolated lightning flashes may occur
near the southern New England coast with weak elevated convection.

Farther southwest, a low-amplitude shortwave trough now over CO/NM
will move east-southeastward over the Red River Valley of TX/OK by
tonight. Weak lee pressure falls across west TX today will induce
southerly low-level flow from the western Gulf basin into southern
and eastern TX, with gradual moisture increases near the coast as
the returning air mass modifies over the western Gulf. Meanwhile,
cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates will contribute to
weak buoyancy this evening into tonight for southern/eastern OK into
east TX. Midlevel ascent preceding the shortwave trough and
low-level warm advection should support a few elevated thunderstorms
this evening into tonight. Elsewhere, some weak convection may
accompany a shortwave trough moving inland over northern CA tonight,
but minimal buoyancy suggests that the threat for lightning is too
low for an outlook area.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/25/2020


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