Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 250100Z – 251200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA…

…SUMMARY…
The development of a couple of strong thunderstorms is possible
across parts of the Carolina piedmont and coastal plain tonight,
perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

…01Z Outlook Update…
Forcing for ascent near/just ahead of an eastward advancing cold
front appears to be contributing to an evolving line of convection
with at least some embedded thunderstorm activity (roughly east of a
Greensboro NC/Columbia SC line at 0030Z). The extent to which this
is supported by weak (generally on the order of a few hundred J/kg
or less) boundary-layer instability remains unclear, but low-level
and deep-layer shear conditionally appear at least marginally
conducive to organized convective development which could promote a
risk for potentially damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado or
two.

The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that some further strengthening of
southerly pre-frontal 850 mb flow, to 30-40 kt, is possible tonight
across Carolina coastal areas and the adjacent offshore waters.
This could be accompanied by at least some further inland
boundary-layer moistening and destabilization, and potential for
intensifying convection, particularly across the northeastern South
Carolina coastal plain into adjacent portions of southern North
Carolina between 03-06Z.

..Kerr.. 01/25/2020

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