Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 241300Z – 251200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS…

…SUMMARY…
A tornado or two and isolated damaging gusts will be possible this
evening through tonight across the Carolinas.

…Carolinas this evening into tonight…
A closed low aloft and surface cyclone over the mid MS Valley will
move northeastward to Lower MI and occlude tonight, while secondary
cyclogenesis occurs across the Piedmont of NC/VA tonight in advance
of an embedded speed max aloft progressing eastward from the
northern Gulf states to the Carolinas. The richer low-level
moisture remains confined to the northeast Gulf of Mexico early this
morning, but some increase in moisture is expected across GA and the
Carolinas by this afternoon/evening, in response to strengthening
southerly low-level flow and erosion of the cool air mass now
inland. Widespread clouds will limit surface heating inland today
to the north of FL, but the low-level moistening (boundary-layer
dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s) and surface temperatures in
the low-mid 60s will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg ahead of the
surface low and cold front by this evening.

Convection is expected to intensify gradually this evening across SC
and continue into NC overnight, in the zone of focused ascent
immediately preceding the surface low and cold front. Though
buoyancy will likely remain weak, deep-layer vertical shear will
favor organized storm structures, including the potential for
embedded supercells. An increase in low-level shear/hodograph
curvature (strongest along the north edge of the weakly unstable
warm sector) will support the threat for a tornado or two, along
with isolated damaging gusts.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/24/2020

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