Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 232000Z – 241200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

..Smith.. 01/23/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/

…Gulf Coast…
A longwave trough will continue to become increasingly prominent
with a slow-eastward shift over the east-central CONUS, with
multiple embedded shortwave troughs phasing and a deepening low over
the Lower Missouri Valley. These trends and related warm/moist
advection will influence gradual air mass modification over the
western/northern Gulf of Mexico while also contributing to scattered
rainfall inland from the ArkLaMiss/southeast Louisiana to Georgia
and the Florida Panhandle.

Weaker/secondary cyclogenesis will occur along the middle Gulf Coast
through tonight, with a warm front approaching the coasts of
southeast Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle. However, with scattered rainfall persisting
inland, it still seems likely that continental trajectories will be
slow to abate with stronger/surface-rooted convection likely to
remain over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico through tonight.
Accordingly, severe potential over inland areas of the region is
still expected to remain very low.


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