Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 231200Z – 241200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States today.

…Gulf States…

500mb speed max is forecast to dig southeast across the Arklatex and
intensify in excess of 100kt during the overnight hours as central
Plains short-wave trough deepens and progresses into southeast MO.
In response to this feature, weak surface wave is developing along
the TX Coast which will move east-northeast along the central Gulf
Coast during the daylight hours before approaching the FL Big Bend
region by sunrise Friday morning. This scenario will prevent
substantial moistening inland as a coastal warm front should
struggle to advance more than a few miles inland. As a result,
buoyancy that develops across this region will lead to primarily
elevated convection, especially north of the coastal boundary. Even
so, there is some risk for near-surface based thunderstorms along
the immediate coast. If so, there is some risk for gusty winds where
surface dew points are able to rise above 60F. At this time it
appears the greatest risk for robust, organized convection will
remain offshore. For these reasons, severe probabilities will not be
introduced at this time.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/23/2020


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