Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 230100Z – 231200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

…01z Update…

No significant changes are warranted at 01z.

Weak height falls will continue across TX overnight as short-wave
troughing ejects across south-central TX toward the lower Sabine
River valley. As mid-level temperatures cool, thermodynamic profiles
should become increasingly favorable for potential convective
development, primarily as elevated updrafts rooted near 850mb.
However, upper 50s surface dew points have moved onshore across the
upper TX Coast as a warm front edges inland. Any storms that form
along/south of this boundary may be near-surface based. Even so,
shear profiles do not appear favorable for organized severe.

..Darrow.. 01/23/2020


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