Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 221200Z – 231200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States during the day1 period.

…South TX…

Split flow regime will continue across the CONUS through the day1
period with some amplification expected over the middle of the
country by 23/12z. As heights fall across the southern Plains ahead
of a short-wave trough, a surface wave should form off the south TX
Coast. This will allow higher boundary-layer air mass to advance
inland across the TX Coastal Plain. In response, a warm front will
sharpen and modified Gulf air mass will move north allowing lower
60s surface dew points to spread onshore along the lower/middle TX
Coast, perhaps approaching the Galveston region by the end of the
period. While this moisture surge is expected to aid buoyancy across
portions of south TX into the lower Sabine River Valley, forecast
shear/instability do not look particularly significant, and not
likely sufficient for organized robust convection. While
near-surface based convection is possible along/south of the warm
front, gusty winds would be the greatest risk with these storms.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/22/2020


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