Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 212000Z – 221200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible near coastal Washington and
Oregon today.

No change is needed to the previous convective outlook.

..Smith.. 01/21/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020/

Forcing for ascent aloft associated with a negative-tilt trough
approaching the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia is currently
fostering a few low-topped thunderstorms along area coastal waters
this morning. A very low severe risk will exist this morning and
afternoon with this activity – though probably too isolated and
limited in scale to require severe probabilities. SWO MCD 0064
addresses this threat in the short term. Later this evening, ascent
will shift eastward in tandem with inland progression of the trough
axis, further limiting the risk of lightning flashes during the
latter half of the forecast period.

Elsewhere, cool/stable low-levels across the remainder of the CONUS
will limit thunderstorm potential through 12Z Wednesday.


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