Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 192000Z – 201200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorm development remains possible across parts of
northern Florida into central portions of the Florida Peninsula late
this afternoon into tonight.

…20Z Outlook Update…
At least attempts at deep convective development, which could become
capable of producing lightning, appear ongoing north through
northeast of Gainesville. This is near or just ahead of the cold
front, which is forecast to continue advancing southward through
much of the peninsula by 12Z Monday.

Ahead of the front, weak mid-level cooling also appears in the
process of overspreading the central portions of the peninsula.
Associated weakening of inhibition may contribute to some increase
in potential for thunderstorm development during the next few hours.
However, boundary-layer destabilization and convergence remain
generally weak, as does mid/upper support for large-scale ascent.

While a categorical risk for thunderstorms is being maintained,
probabilities appear near the minimum 10 percent threshold, with
only very isolated thunderstorm development (at most) seeming
possible late this afternoon through tonight.

..Kerr.. 01/19/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/

…Discussion…
Dry and/or stable conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS
through tonight. Thunderstorm potential, albeit low, will be
relegated to a southeastward-advancing cold front from far southern
Georgia to the Florida Peninsula. Thermodynamic profiles near the
front will be only marginally conducive for thunderstorms,
especially for inland areas.

$$

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.