Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 191300Z – 201200Z


Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of southern
Georgia and northern/central Florida today into the early evening.

…Synopsis and Discussion…
A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will undergo
further amplification today as several embedded shortwave troughs
rotate around its base. A surface low over the Gulf of Maine this
morning will continue to develop northeastward, with a trailing cold
front currently extending from the western Atlantic to eastern
NC/SC, southern GA, and northern FL. This front will move southward
over much of the FL Peninsula through the period.

Isolated thunderstorms may occur along and perhaps just ahead of
this cold front from southern GA into parts of northern/central FL.
Weak ascent aloft combined with only modest low-level convergence
along the front suggests that overall storm coverage should remain
rather sparse over land. Limited low-level moisture, characterized
by surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and
poor mid-level lapse rates present across northern/central FL will
likely temper instability. Weak/veered low-level flow along with the
meager instability should limit storm organization. Convective
potential across central FL should diminish through the evening with
the loss of daytime heating.

Across the remainder of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will
prevail as a large area of high pressure behind the cold front
dominates a broad majority of the CONUS east of the Rockies.

..Gleason.. 01/19/2020


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