Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 191200Z – 201200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northern and
central Florida today and into the early evening. The risk for
severe weather with this activity is minimal.

A broad upper-level trough across the eastern US will amplify during
the forecast period. A subtle shortwave impulse within the base of
this larger trough will move across the northern Gulf and impact
portions of northern Florida by afternoon. At the surface, a cold
front will continue to surge southeastward, reaching south Florida
by early Monday morning.

Weak mid-level height falls and weak convergence along the cold
front may lead isolated thunderstorm activity in portions of the
eastern Florida Panhandle and northern Florida during the day.
Though low- to mid-60s F dewpoints will be in place, cloud cover is
likely to limit boundary-layer heating and keep surface-based
buoyancy no more than 200-300 J/kg MLCAPE. Though a convective gust
or two will be possible, weak and veered low-level flow should
minimize potential for storm organization.

..Wendt.. 01/19/2020


Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.