Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 191200Z – 201200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northern and
central Florida today and into the early evening. The risk for
severe weather with this activity is minimal.

…Synopsis…
A broad upper-level trough across the eastern US will amplify during
the forecast period. A subtle shortwave impulse within the base of
this larger trough will move across the northern Gulf and impact
portions of northern Florida by afternoon. At the surface, a cold
front will continue to surge southeastward, reaching south Florida
by early Monday morning.

Weak mid-level height falls and weak convergence along the cold
front may lead isolated thunderstorm activity in portions of the
eastern Florida Panhandle and northern Florida during the day.
Though low- to mid-60s F dewpoints will be in place, cloud cover is
likely to limit boundary-layer heating and keep surface-based
buoyancy no more than 200-300 J/kg MLCAPE. Though a convective gust
or two will be possible, weak and veered low-level flow should
minimize potential for storm organization.

..Wendt.. 01/19/2020

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