Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 181630Z – 191200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from south Texas across the
central Gulf Coast States. Organized severe weather is not expected.

…Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida Panhandle…
A modest increase in thunderstorm coverage/intensity is expected
this afternoon, particularly near a cold front that will advance
southeastward across the ArkLaMiss and Texas Coastal Plain through
the afternoon. A couple of strong storms could occur, but
organized/sustained severe potential still appears low.

The cold front will intercept an increasingly moist boundary layer
across southeast/Deep South Texas, Louisiana into western/southern
Mississippi through the afternoon with middle/upper 60s F surface
dewpoints common. With the region well south of the polar jet/trough
over the Midwest and cloud cover tending to persist within the warm
sector, low/mid-level lapse rates will generally remain weak,
although somewhat stronger heating/destabilization may occur across
areas such as Deep South Texas. Overall, additional
warming/moistening could support a degree of updraft intensification
and somewhat more prevalent thunderstorms this afternoon mainly
across coastal Texas into Louisiana. However, the organized severe
potential near the cold front appears low given weakening deep-layer
winds and/or previously expressed thermodynamic limitations.

Farther east, a weak warm front will develop north-northeastward
through the afternoon and early evening into/across southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
Convergence will likely remain weak near the warm front and upstream
surface wave/triple point, while destabilization will also be muted
by residual cloud cover and weak lapse rates. That said, hodographs
across this region, with their moderate curvature/length in the
lowest 1-2 km AGL, albeit with a flow weakness around 3 km, imply
some concern for brief updraft rotation/weak supercell
characteristics. Regardless, given only modestly conducive
thermodynamic factors, the overall organized severe potential still
appears limited and below outlook thresholds.

..Guyer/Cook.. 01/18/2020

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