Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 181200Z – 191200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible from south Texas into the
central Gulf Coast states today. The risk for severe weather is low.

A mid-level trough will progress eastward through the mid- and
upper-Mississippi Valley regions into the Great Lakes region today.
This feature is expected to lose amplitude with time. At the
surface, a strong cyclone will lift into the upper Midwest/Lower
Great Lakes during the afternoon and evening. An attendant cold
front will move southeastward, reaching into the northern/central
Gulf of Mexico by the end of the period. A warm-frontal boundary
will be positioned within southern Alabama/Mississippi into the
western Florida Panhandle.

With the strongest upper-level forcing for ascent remaining to the
north, only isolated thunderstorm development along/near the frontal
boundaries is expected. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low- to
mid-60s F within the warm sector will support only modest buoyancy.
With the exception of areas near the warm front, deep-layer and
low-level shear will be relatively weak. A conditional threat for
marginal supercell structures during the afternoon/early evening may
develop in portions of the western Florida Panhandle that receive
greater surface heating. Should that occur, a brief tornado would be
possible with storms interacting with the warm front. However, given
the uncertainties regarding surface-based destabilization and narrow
window of potential, no severe probabilities will be added at this

..Wendt.. 01/18/2020


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