Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 180100Z – 181200Z


Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight from a portion of the
central and Southern Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley

…Central and Southern plains to the middle Mississippi Valley…

Scattered shallow convection will persist along warm conveyor belt
from central and east TX into eastern OK and the middle MS Valley
tonight. The 00Z RAOBs show limited instability above the stable
surface layer with MUCAPE from around 400 J/kg over south TX to less
than 200 J/kg with northward extent through MS the Valley. The
marginal thermodynamic environment suggests lightning activity will
remain isolated at best.

Another area for potentially a few lightning strikes will exist
across northern KS tonight. Steep mid-level lapse rates and deeper
forcing for ascent attending a progressive shortwave trough will
promote marginal instability and shallow convection, mainly confined
to the 750-500 mb layer.

..Dial.. 01/18/2020


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