Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 172000Z – 181200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from southern and
central Texas to the southern Ozarks today through tonight. No
severe weather is anticipated.

Little change was made to the previous general thunder lines.

Several lightning flashes persist across western CO related to a
strong upper vorticity maximum and where SFCOA indicates 100-200
J/kg MUCAPE. This feature will continue east across the central
Plains this evening, providing cooling aloft while surface
convergence increases along a cold front into central KS. While a
lightning flash or two is possible over KS this evening, instability
does not appear sufficient to denote graphical thunder
probabilities.

Otherwise, sporadic lightning is possible from TX into southern MO
in the zone of warm advection.

..Jewell.. 01/17/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020/

…Discussion…
Within a progressive large-scale pattern, an upper trough will
advance from the northern/central Rockies to the Upper Midwest
through tonight. Warm/moist advection and at least glancing DPVA
will support isolated/episodic thunderstorms primarily across parts
of Texas into southern Oklahoma today, and across more of Oklahoma
and the ArkLaTex/Ozarks tonight. Most of these storms will be
elevated atop a cool/stable boundary layer with weak buoyancy
precluding severe thunderstorms.

Additionally, near the core of the Rockies upper trough, very
isolated thunderstorms may also continue this morning into the
afternoon from far eastern Utah into Colorado and southern Wyoming.

$$

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