Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 162000Z – 171200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight.

Sporadic general thunderstorms remain most probable over west Texas
through tonight due to warm advection over a cool surface air mass.
To the west, shallow convection along a cold front is expected to
decrease over central California, with thunderstorm probabilities
dropping below the 10% threshold.

..Jewell.. 01/16/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020/

…Southern Plains…
Most of the nation will be relatively dry and stable for this
forecast period, with only two areas with risk of thunderstorms.
One area is over the southern Plains where low-level warm advection
atop a cold/stable near-surface layer will support showers and
occasional thunderstorms. Some of this deep convection may occur in
regions of sub-freezing surface temperatures over western OK and the
TX panhandle.

…Pacific Northwest…
A few thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening
along the Pacific northwest coast as a cold upper trough moves
inland across the area.


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