Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 160100Z – 161200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated marginally severe hail and a few strong wind gusts remain
possible this evening from northeast Texas to the Tennessee Valley.

…Northern Mississippi and Alabama through Middle Tennessee…

Initial thunderstorms have developed this evening from middle TN
through eastern AR along a southeast-advancing cold front. The warm
sector in this region is only marginally unstable with MLCAPE from
300-600 J/kg. Low-level winds are relatively weak, but a corridor of
moderate-strong zonal flow aloft is promoting 45-55 kt effective
bulk shear. A weak thermodynamic environment will remain a limiting
factor, especially as the surface layer continues to stabilize.
Nevertheless, a few of the storms could develop transient/marginal
supercell structures and bowing segments capable of locally strong
wind gusts.

…Northeast Texas through southern Arkansas and northern
Louisiana…

The 00Z RAOB data show a capping inversion due to warm temperatures
at base of an elevated mixed layer. This has precluded thunderstorm
initiation where the pre-frontal warm sector is more unstable than
father east with MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg along with steeper (7-7.5
C/km) mid level lapse rates. However, storms are expected to develop
later this evening as ascent within the deeper frontal zone begins
to intercept the northern fringe of instability corridor. Largely
unidirectional winds with 45-50 kt effective bulk shear suggest some
of the updrafts might develop weak mid-level rotation with primary
threats being a few instances of marginally severe hail and locally
strong wind gusts.

..Dial.. 01/16/2020

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