Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 152000Z – 161200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated, marginally severe hail or wind is possible this afternoon
and evening across the Arklatex and toward the Tennessee Valley.

…Arklatex Region into the Tennessee Valley…
Changes to this outlook include adding low hail probabilities for
initial storm development expected late afternoon near the Arklatex
which will then spread eastward beneath moderate midlevel
westerlies. While ascent will be weak, ample low-level moisture
combined with cool midlevel temperatures and long hodographs may
favor hail in the strongest cores over western areas. Otherwise,
locally gusty outflow winds or smaller hail will be possible across
the remainder of the Marginal Risk area.

..Jewell.. 01/15/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0954 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020/

…Arklatex into southern Appalachians…
A surface cold front currently extends from MO into OK. This
boundary will push southeastward into the lower MS and TN valleys
this afternoon. A combination of pockets of heating, increasing
low-level moisture, and forcing along the front will lead to a few
clusters of thunderstorms along the front. Most convection will
likely remain rather weak due to marginal CAPE values – despite
strong shear profiles. However, most 12z CAM solutions suggest that
one or two clusters will develop sufficient intensity to pose a risk
of locally gusty/damaging winds and small hail. Will therefore
maintain the MRGL risk area with only minor changes.

$$

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