Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 151630Z – 161200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated gusty/damaging thunderstorms winds are possible this
afternoon and evening from the Arklatex region into the southern
Appalachians.

…Arklatex into southern Appalachians…
A surface cold front currently extends from MO into OK. This
boundary will push southeastward into the lower MS and TN valleys
this afternoon. A combination of pockets of heating, increasing
low-level moisture, and forcing along the front will lead to a few
clusters of thunderstorms along the front. Most convection will
likely remain rather weak due to marginal CAPE values – despite
strong shear profiles. However, most 12z CAM solutions suggest that
one or two clusters will develop sufficient intensity to pose a risk
of locally gusty/damaging winds and small hail. Will therefore
maintain the MRGL risk area with only minor changes.

..Hart/Smith.. 01/15/2020

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