Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 150100Z – 151200Z


Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
States tonight.

…01Z Update…
An band of precipitation with embedded thunderstorms is ongoing this
evening from parts of east TX into LA/MS/AL. This activity is
associated with modest low-level warm advection atop a convectively
reinforced surface boundary. A subtle perturbation currently over
this region and embedded within the mid-level westerlies will move
eastward through the remainder of the evening and overnight.
Low-level warm advection is expected to gradually weaken over the
next several hours, and overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity
should likewise decrease as forcing for ascent diminishes. Locally
gusty winds may occur for the next hour or two with the strongest
embedded cores in southern/central MS, but already weak instability
will further lessen with the loss of daytime heating. Accordingly,
the Marginal risk for wind/hail has been removed. Isolated
thunderstorms may occur late tonight mainly across parts of the TN
Valley as another shortwave trough approaches from the Plains, but
overall coverage should remain quite sparse.

..Gleason.. 01/15/2020


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