Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 142000Z – 151200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA…

…SUMMARY…
Marginally severe hail and gusty thunderstorm winds are possible
from the lower Mississippi Valley into western Georgia.

Only minor adjustments were made to the previous outlook, including
shunting the northern risk lines south to account for rain-cooled
air, and expanding southern fringe slightly where the air mass is
destabilizing the most near the existing activity. An isolated
severe wind gust or hail report remains possible.

..Jewell.. 01/14/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020/

…Gulf Coast States…
Latest radar imagery shows a band of thunderstorms extending from
far east TX into parts of LA/MS/AL. This activity is sagging slowly
southeastward into a moist and at least marginally unstable air mass
(dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg). A
few of the storms along the southern edge of the larger convective
shield have shown weak bowing structures and/or rotation. This
trend may persist through the early/mid afternoon, with a risk of
gusty winds or isolated hail in the strongest cells. Present
indications are that the more intense cells will be very isolated,
so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk area. The risk of strong
storms is expected to diminish after dark.

$$

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