Valid 141200Z – 151200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GULF STATES…
…SUMMARY…
Marginal hail or wind is possible from the lower Mississippi Valley
into northwest Georgia.
…Gulf States…
Large-scale ridging will remain anchored across low-latitudes with
the main core of westerlies extending from northern CA – central
Plains – southern New England. As a result, negligible height
changes will be noted across the Gulf States. As a result, a plume
of higher-PW air will continue to extend around the ridge from the
coastal plain of TX across LA/MS into AL. While diabatic heating
will not be particularly strong, and large-scale forcing will be
necessarily weak, there is some threat for marginally severe deep
convection across this region. Forecast soundings exhibit modest
lapse rates with ample deep-layer shear for at least organized
multi-cell updrafts, and perhaps a few weak supercells. Weak warm
advection amidst moist/buoyant profiles suggest some threat for
hail/wind with the most robust updrafts.
..Darrow/Nauslar.. 01/14/2020
$$