Valid 140100Z – 141200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TX TO MIDDLE TN…
Isolated severe hail is possible from southeast Texas to the
Tennessee Valley, primarily after midnight.
Water-vapor imagery continues to suggest a weak disturbance may be
embedded within the low-latitude mid-level branch over southwest
TX/northern Mexico. This feature is lifting northeast and should
approach the Arklatex region late this evening. 00z sounding from
SHV exhibits substantial MUCAPE if lifting a parcel from near 800mb
and mid-level lapse rates are on the order of 8 C/km. It appears
convection should gradually expand north across the Gulf States
later this evening ahead of this feature. With time, aided support
by the upstream disturbance may encourage a few robust elevated
thunderstorms. Given the steep lapse rates, some hail threat will be
noted. Will maintain 5% severe probs for this possibility.