Valid 131630Z – 141200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TX TO THE TN VALLEY…
Isolated severe hail is possible from southeast Texas to the
Tennessee Valley, primarily after midnight.
…East TX into TN Valley…
A partially modified air mass has returned to portions of the Gulf
Coast region with dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s extending from
east TX into parts of LA/MS/AL. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
this morning over this area in weak low-level warm advection regime.
This activity will persist through the afternoon and lift northward
across portions of the MRGL risk area. While the overall
environment is not particularly good with these storms, one or two
cells might produce at least small hail.
Later tonight, midlevel lapse rates steepen across parts of east TX
into LA, where another round of widely scattered thunderstorms is
expected to form. These storms will be focused along a developing
low-level jet axis extending into AR and northern MS. Environmental
parameters will be more favorable for hail for these storms, with
MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and lapse rates over 6.5 C/km.
However, activity will be after midnight and CAM solutions suggest
that updrafts will struggle to intensify. Therefore, will maintain
only MRGL risk probabilities for hail at this time.