Valid 160100Z – 161200Z
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA…
…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread southeast through
eastern Kansas and western Missouri this evening with large hail,
damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes. Other strong to severe
storms might develop later tonight from eastern Wyoming into western
Nebraska.
…Central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri…
Storms that developed along a east-west oriented outflow boundary
across northeastern KS are expected to persist into the overnight as
they develop southeastward, eventually into western MO. The 00Z RAOB
from TOP sampled the atmosphere north of the this boundary and
indicates moderate instability along with 50 kt 0-6 km shear and
200 m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity. Supercells developing
along and slightly to the cool side of the outflow boundary are more
likely to realize the vorticity rich 0-1 km air and develop
low-level mesocyclones and a tornado or two. While storms deeper
into the cool side should remain elevated. Storms are expected to
develop southeast through eastern KS and western MO along
instability gradient supported by a strengthening low-level jet.
Discrete supercells with large hail and a couple of tornadoes as the
initial mode may eventually evolve into an MCS with an increasing
threat for damaging wind. Development farther southwest into central
KS along a convergent boundary remains uncertain, but will maintain
a conditional slight risk for this area.
…Eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska…
Deeper ascent with a shortwave trough now moving through northwest
WY may contribute to additional thunderstorm development across
eastern WY later this evening or tonight where modest instability
and 40-50 kt effective bulk shear will support a risk for organized
storms capable of isolated large hail and a few locally strong to
damaging gusts.
..Dial.. 08/16/2019
$$