Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 131300Z – 141200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST TX TO
THE TN VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated severe hail is possible from southeast Texas to the
Tennessee Valley, primarily early morning Tuesday.

…Southeast TX to the TN Valley…
A series of shortwave impulses from the northern Rockies to eastern
Great Basin will rapidly progress east across the Great Plains to
the Upper/Mid-MS Valley through early Tuesday. A warm front from
south-central Alabama to the northwest Gulf will slowly advance
northwest through the period with near-neutral height change
expected across the warm sector. Isentropic ascent through low-level
warm advection should be the primary instigator for periods of
scattered showers and thunderstorms along and to the cool side of
the surface front. Over time, steepening mid-level lapse rates
through advection of an elevated mixed-layer from western/southern
TX in conjunction with gradual low-level moistening should support
MUCAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/kg across eastern TX to the Lower MS
Valley tonight. With a probable overnight increase in elevated
convection amid 30-40 kt effective shear, the setup might support a
few more robust updrafts capable of isolated severe hail during the
early morning Tuesday.

..Grams/Mosier.. 01/13/2020

$$

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