Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 121300Z – 131200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday.

…Lower Mid-Atlantic…
As a shortwave trough races east across the Saint Lawrence Valley,
low-level convergence will further weaken along the trailing cold
front in far southeast VA and eastern NC. As such, potential for
thunderstorms and any attendant severe threat is negligible this

…Coastal AL/Western FL Panhandle to west-central GA…
A quasi-stationary front across southern GA to the eastern FL
Panhandle will slowly advance northwest as a weak warm front.
Guidance is fairly consistent in simulating isolated to scattered
convection along and north of the advancing front tonight as
convergence and isentropic ascent increase. A modest combination of
mid-level lapse rates, elevated buoyancy, and effective bulk shear
may be adequate for small hail in the more robust updrafts. The
setup does not appear to warrant a highlight for marginally severe
hail yet.

..Grams/Mosier.. 01/12/2020


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