Valid 120100Z – 121200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA…
Severe wind gusts remain possible along/ahead of a squall line as it
spreads across portions of GA – western SC/NC – VA. A few embedded
tornadoes remain possible as well.
Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined
negative-tilted short-wave trough over IL/western TN. Associated
500mb speed max, on the order of 110kt, will translate across the OH
Valley late this evening before moving into NY by 12/12z. Strong
forcing is noted ahead of this feature as evident by a narrow band
of shallow convection that arcs from southern IN – KY – middle TN.
Ahead of this strongly forced band, a long-lived QLCS is migrating
across the higher terrain of the Appalachians with several embedded
bow-type structures that are likely producing damaging winds. Of
particular note is a bow echo moving across Washington County into
Smith County VA. This convection is racing northeast at roughly 50kt
and is likely producing severe wind gusts. Current convective trends
will require an expansion of severe probs downstream into portions
of VA to account for a more northern wind threat.
Otherwise, earlier thoughts regarding severe threat along a slowing
squall line across GA remain. Trailing convection at low latitudes
will become increasingly separated from the influence of the
aforementioned ejecting short wave. Even so, wind fields remain
strong and supportive of organized convection, so some damaging wind
threat will continue into the overnight hours.