Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 111630Z – 121200Z

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES……

…SUMMARY…
Scattered to potentially widespread damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley.
The greatest threat for tornadoes will be across portions of
Alabama.

…IN/OH/KY…
A fast-moving squall line is tracking eastward across the OH/TN
Valleys and central Gulf Coast states today, producing numerous
reports of wind damage over the past few hours. The northern end of
the line over IN/OH/KY is moving into a progressively more
dry/stable air mass, with general weakening noted in
satellite/radar/lightning data. Despite the weakening, locally
damaging wind gusts will remain possible for the next few hours
along the leading edge of the line of convection.

…TN/MS/AL/GA…
The intense squall line extends southward across middle TN into
northwest AL and eastern MS. The air mass ahead of the line is
modestly unstable with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s. Little daytime
heating is expected, but afternoon MLCAPE values as high as 1000
J/kg may be realized over central AL later today. Given the
extremely strong wind fields, this parameter space will remain
conducive for damaging winds and QLCS mesovortices along the squall
line. The warm sector continues to show a little capping per recent
soundings in northern AL. If the capping erodes, the potential for
a few discrete supercells ahead of the line would increase, along
with a potential for a strong tornado or two.

…Carolinas into PA/NJ…
The convective line will likely maintain some character through much
of the night, with occasional gusty/damaging wind reports all the
way to the Atlantic coast.

..Hart/Dean.. 01/11/2020

$$

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