Valid 111300Z – 121200Z
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
Scattered to potentially widespread damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Southeast States through at least this evening.
The greatest threat for tornadoes will be across eastern Mississippi
and Alabama, mainly midday to afternoon.
Primary change this outlook is to add a 10 sig tornado probability
across AL where the potential for at least a couple strong tornadoes
is evident this afternoon, and increase damaging wind probabilities
to 45 percent.
An extensive squall line is ongoing from western KY into the
northwest Gulf. While the northern portion of the line has recently
outpaced surface-based instability, 850-700 mb winds above 75 kt
will continue to support bowing/LEWP structures along with embedded
tornadoes across from TN to LA this morning where 65-70 F surface
dew points are prevalent.
As the powerful southern Great Plains shortwave trough ejects more
northeastward today, attendant large-scale forcing for ascent will
begin to wane across the southern portion of the QLCS. There are
some CAMs that suggest the line may break up slightly this afternoon
as it progresses into AL. This could result in more favorable
embedded supercell potential as low-level hodographs will remain
quite enlarged. With the northern periphery of upper 60s surface dew
points expected to translate east ahead of the line into central and
southern AL, a couple strong tornadoes are possible.
By evening into tonight, increasing separation between the stronger
forcing for ascent and outpacing of the remnant QLCS/convective line
from greater than meager surface-based instability should yield an
increasingly marginal damaging wind and tornado threat into the
Carolinas and VA.