Valid 110100Z – 111200Z
…THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS TO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI…
Widespread severe thunderstorms will spread across east Texas into
the lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Damaging winds are the primary
threat, though a few tornadoes are also expected. Hail will also be
common across south-central Texas.
Primary changes warranted at 01z are to lower severe probs in the
wake of the squall line.
An elongated corridor of deep convection, approaching 800mi long,
extends from eastern MO – northwest AR – southeast OK –
central/southwestern TX. This band of thunderstorms has matured
along the leading edge of pronounced forcing ahead of a strong
short-wave trough. Over the last few hours convection has decidedly
taken on linear characteristics and this MCS should advance into the
lower MS Valley later tonight. 00z soundings ahead of the squall
line exhibit strong shear with only modest lapse rates. The most
buoyant profile is LCH where 70F surface dew points reside. This air
mass should advance across eastern TX into northern LA/southern AR
later tonight, which should aid environmental instability for the
maintenance of long-lived linear MCS. Damaging winds are the primary
threat with this activity. Greatest tornado threat will be with
pre-squall line supercells, though embedded squall line circulations
should be noted most of the night.